July 19, 2005
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Iraq
Two Sunni members of the Iraqi constitution committee were shot to death. Apparently, Sunni insurgents have vowed to kill any Sunni muslims who try to take part in the committee.
It seems like the Sunni insurgents are putting themselve in a bad place. If the next Iraqi government is formed based on this constitutional committee, they are doing their utmost to not have a voice in it.
Presumably, they oppose it, because they see it as a puppet or tool of the western influences. However, in the case of western influences complete disappearing, they are still going to be in a bad situation. According to the CIA factbook, Iraq is made up of 32% – 37% Sunni and 60% – 65% Shi’a.
Saddam favored the Sunni, but Saddam would most likely not have been in power without western support. In the absence of western support, the Shi’a will rule Iraq. Unless they hope to split Iraq into two or three countries (Kurdish and Arab, with Arab split into Sunni and Shi’a), the Sunni will need to win concessions from the Shi’a through peaceful or violent means.
Keeping Sunni voices out of any constitutional dialogs occurring in the presence of western power will not help get those voice heard in the event of western powers departing. It very easily could make their road harder.
Just ramblings, but while I understand the desire to not have collaborators “lending legitimacy” to the current constitutional efforts, the strategy seems unwise.
